XplanaZine

About fifteen years ago I was spending a lazy afternoon floating on rafts in the river with a friend of mine while our wives and kids tried to catch fish upstream. I remember the afternoon well because of something my friend, a researcher for Motorola, claimed. He said that hardware was already becoming less expensive than software and that, at some point, to would be essentially free.

Quite a claim, that, at least it seemed so at the time. But then I find myself reading recent news items about the MIT group with a mission of producing $100 laptops for families and children in developing countries. And not just a few laptops either. We’re talking millions of computers at a cost that comes in far lower than a child’s textbook expenses for the computer’s life span.

So, like my friend said, basic hardware will eventually be free (or close to it). The money, as he put it, is in the software. And that shift, from hardware to software was on of the big changes in the first twenty years of desktop and laptop computer technology.

Within the confines of technology and education, there is another shift afoot, one that is every bit as radical as the move from hardware to software. This evolution, what I call The Next Big Shift (TNBS), will see large software platforms (distribution channels such as an LMS) become free while specific content packages and content production tools become more valuable. TNBS will begin with LMS platforms but will eventually spread to other software behemoths such as e-books (production, storage, and reading) and learning object repositories.

In order to get an idea of how this evolutionary path develops, let’s take a look at the various phases (past, present, and future) of LMS platforms.

• Phase 1
  • LMS and platforms come onto scene as a one-stop-shopping solution for educational Web publishing and course management;
  • Most educational content is created and stored using one of these platforms although storage is crude;
  • Lack of shared standards means lack of interoperability between competing systems .
• Phase 2
  • LMS and platforms evolve into enterprise solutions with heavier price tags, more services, and more competition;
  • Most content is authored and stored in LMS platforms but third party authoring tools that are easier to use begin to emerge. In addition, storage is improved with the concept of sharable learning objects;
  • Standards are more widely adopted and interoperability is improved.
• Phase 3
  • Open source LMS and e-book platforms gain popularity and credibility. Fewer schools and teachers are willing to pay high prices for basic services that are free elsewhere. Software companies shift profitability from software platforms to customization of software and software services (hosting and support). Software companies also begin specializing in advanced content authoring of simulations etc.;
  • Increasingly, content is authored outside of LMS platforms or in one but transferred to another. Teachers no longer associate content creation with the LMS;
  • Complete interoperability.
• Phase 4
  • Most LMS platforms, as software, are licensed free-of-charge to educational institutions. Schools can pay more for services or for plug-ins that allow advanced authoring capabilities;
  • Most content authoring and storage now occurs outside of LMS platforms;
  • Complete interoperability.

And, while TNBS begins with LMS platforms, we will see the same evolution occur with e-books and content management systems.

In reality, TNBS makes sense both technologically and commercially. From a software perspective, the goal is to create efficiencies through modularization and by distributing as much intelligence as possible to the most granular level. This makes the LMS of the future become nothing more than a semi-intelligent framework that can interpret intelligent learning objects and actions. As we move forward, our LMS platforms will be more like flexible CRT dummy terminals that receive and interpret smart objects.

From a commercial perspective, behemoth platforms, their modification, and their support will always be losing propositions, especially in education. These is a good margin, however, in custom development services and in intelligent authoring systems that lead to the mass production of improved learning objects.

With that in mind, and in anticipation of TNBS, here are some suggestions for everyone involved in educational technology:

1. Move away from expensive LMS investments, particularly those related to the current LMS paradigm. A new model is coming quickly and it will replace what you’re currently driving;
2. Move a majority of your current LMS and financial and personnel investments towards content storage (LORs), and distribution solutions (which will also be free and interoperable eventually);
3. Invest heavily in content design and authoring tools that allow you to take advantage of distribution channels and storage solutions.