Trends to Watch

Digital Barter Economies

One of the most important trends in Internet usage finds people auctioning, file-sharing, and using friend-of-a-friend social networking to build digital barter economies. These social swap nets help like-minded members pool digital resources –
music, movies, games, even hardcover books.

What’s different about these sources of networked transactions
is that they feature actual trading rather than illegal downloading and copying. In about six months, Mediachest has grown to more than 3,500 members and its trade listings have topped 170,000 media files.

On the surface, this trend is good news for companies with
large libraries of digital content. User trends show increased
accountability and a greater willingness to pay for valued resources. But just because a trend is emerging doesn’t mean that everyone will be able take advantage of it. Just building a digital repository does not necessarily mean that people will come and start shopping. There are several required elements for making digital sharing communities work well.

  • Community of interest: It all begins with identifying a specific community of users and creating a library of digital content that targets this community directly. This identified community of interest will act as a magnet for attracting more members and, in turn, increase the demand for your digital assets. This focus on the community means providing strong tools for collaboration and sharing, and an emphasis on people rather than “things,”.
  • Core content: Of course, profitability is about content and getting people to use it. In order for that to happen, you must have good content, abundant content, easy-to-find content, and a good way to rate content. When all is said and done, content rules!
  • Usable technology: This seems like a no-brainer, but many don’t get this part of the equation right. For digital content exchanges to work, the technology has to be easy and it has to allow people to do what they want to do (as opposed to what you want them to do). This means user testing and ongoing feedback so that your technology can morph to meet the evolving needs of your community.

Universities, publishers, and libraries have large banks of digital content around which strong, profitable communities can be formed. The key for each will be to focus on creating real communities (as opposed to isolated users) and usable technology that makes sharing possible.

Technology Becomes Increasingly Integrated, Portable, and Fun

Most teachers still say that technology creates a bigger workload for them. New technology and digital resources mean more preparation, more difficult learning curves, and a whole host of pedagogical issues that didn’t exist fifteen years ago.

From a technology perspective, one big issue is the lack of true integration and mobility. Teachers want to use email, show video clips, put lectures online, and have interactive groups outside the classroom. This still requires a computer, however, and that ties students to labs, classrooms, dorm rooms etc. Even wireless campuses require students to cary around laptops and work in “designated” areas. The Internet may promise an untethered learning environment, but since it doesn’t come bundled with untethered hardware, the mobility it promises has been somewhat overrated.

This means that educational institutions and their teachers have the added burden of using technology but cannot yet access all of that technology’s potential. The Internet was supposed to free teachers and students to explore, learn more, and have fun doing it. Instead, many have felt more restricted than ever and the fun has eluded them entirely.

Hope, however, is on the horizon. The promise of ubiquitous and entertaining education will probably not be computer-driven, however; it will more likely be related to a new wave of integrated devices that can truly go anywhere and do anything.

SmartPhones are already big in business and they will play an increased role in education over the next five years. As Sony and others are pulling out of the traditional PDA market, SmartPhones continue to gain big momentum in the cell phone space and the next generation of devices feature important improvements:

  • Multiple wireless options: New devices will feature Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, and Tri-band cell phone access so that no matter where you are in the world, you can access the Internet, call your friends, or connect to peripheral devices. By 2006, the majority of cell phone devices sold will be feature these connectivity options.
  • Improved functionality: Cell phones already account for the majority of digital cameras sold in the world and new functionality means that they will take on other roles as well. Coming standard on new devices is video capture and play, voice recording, full Internet support, second-generation keyboards, and improved operating systems for handling digital content.
  • Greater ease of use: I’m one of the people who had early versions of PDA phones and other first-generation wireless technology. It was bulky, complicated, and a general pain. New devices, while bulked up with functionality, promise to be as easy to use as a .. well, uh, as easy to use as a cell phone.
  • Improved interoperability: Early versions of enhanced cell phones inherited the same problems related to the industry. In particular, a lack of interoperability between carriers made cell phones about as interoperable as a Wang computer and a Televideo computer in 1982. New standards and legislation, however, are creating a scenario in which all intelligent cell phones will function in an interoperable manner.

Small, Internet-ready devices that can play high-quality multimedia, be used and communication devices, connect anywhere, and are easy to use; that is the real promise of phones for education. But they are not the only portable devices that promise to make waves. New gaming devices also portend interesting opportunities.

Take, for example, the new PlayStation Portable (PSP) from Sony (due in US stores in spring, 2005). This “gaming” system is actually a full-blown mobile entertainment system. It even comes with earbuds and and stereo speakers for listening to music. It also boasts a rich widescreen (16.7 million colors and a 16:9 aspect ratio) that is fine for playing games but also ideal for screening movies on Sony’s Universal Media Discs. Enhanced versions of the mobile gaming devices will also, you guessed it, connect to the Internet for multi-player gaming.

This increased integration and portability means that hardware will finally catch up to the promise of the Internet platform. Everyone will own a device that can provide untethered education. The final burden will be to provide content that takes full advantage of the functionality of those devices and that lives up to the original promise of the Internet.

Trends in Advertising

Finally, here are a few interesting statistics regarding men between the ages of 18-34.

  • 38% say that going online or playing video games is their favorite leisure activity while 22% say they still prefer watching TV. Only 6% prefer to read a book or a magazine.
  • When they go online, 51% express an interest in auctions.
  • The annual Internet ad spending targeting 18-34 year old men has increased more than 37% since 2000 and reached $7.3 billion in 2003.
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